Supply-demand imbalance makes it difficult to change the market pattern of blister copper, with blister copper RCs remaining stable at a low level [SMM analysis]

SMM reported on July 1:

    In June 2025, domestic blister copper RCs in south China were quoted at 700-900 yuan/mt, with an average price of 800 yuan/mt, up 100 yuan/mt MoM. Domestic blister copper RCs in north China were quoted at 650-850 yuan/mt, with an average price of 750 yuan/mt, unchanged MoM. CIF import blister copper RCs were quoted at 90-100 US dollars/mt, with an average price of 95 US dollars/mt, unchanged MoM.

    In June, domestic spot blister copper RCs saw a slight increase, mainly due to a decrease in market demand. As the mid-year period approached, some domestic smelters began to control their inventory levels. Especially after mid-to-late June, procurement volumes of spot blister copper significantly declined. However, in terms of supply, the supply of blister copper and copper anodes remained tight in June, primarily due to a decrease in copper scrap imports from the US. In terms of imports, the market was relatively sluggish due to the inverted SHFE/LME price ratio and limited import sources.

    SMM's latest weekly domestic blister copper RCs in south China were quoted at 700-900 yuan/mt, with an average price of 800 yuan/mt, unchanged MoM. Weekly domestic blister copper RCs in north China were quoted at 650-850 yuan/mt, with an average price of 750 yuan/mt, unchanged MoM. Weekly CIF import blister copper RCs were quoted at 90-100 US dollars/mt, with an average price of 95 US dollars/mt, unchanged MoM. Domestic copper anode RCs were quoted at 400-600 yuan/mt, with an average price of 500 yuan/mt, unchanged MoM.

    Entering July, the market is expected to remain tight. In terms of supply, with the rise in copper prices at the end of June, domestic secondary copper raw material inventories began to be sold off. Meanwhile, as the profit margin for copper anodes is better than that for secondary copper rods, the domestic supply of copper anodes is expected to increase. However, due to the wait-and-see attitude of some copper scrap traders towards the current copper prices and the still low volume of copper scrap imports, the increase in copper scrap supply is expected to be limited unless the center of copper prices continues to rise. In terms of demand, with the end of the mid-year period, smelters' restocking demand will increase. However, as blister copper RCs are already at a relatively low level, the market is expected to remain stable in July.

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